4-5-1 LW. A little slow start, but I expect better this week.
Cleveland (+2')
The Brownies have covered 3 of the L4 in B-More. They are 9-2 ATS the L11 as dogs and 7-0 ATS as dogs of 9.5 or less in September.
Cleveland's defense held the Colts to 270 total yards LW. That's bad news for a rookie QB in his second start.
Baltimore's back 7 is solid as usual, but their front four is not that great. I expect the Browns to establish the run pretty early today.
Indianapolis (-1')
I usually would take Tennessee with this small number, but I gotta go with Indy here.
The Colts game is blacked out locally and the team might use that as a motivating factor. Tennessee is coming off a big win last Sunday night over Oakland and the Colts looked sluggish with a 9-6 win in Cleveland.
I think the Colts will play with a chip on their shoulder today b/c of the non-sellout and Indiana's Governor Frank O'Bannon, a big supporter of his local teams, passed away yesterday.
St. Louis (-3)
I think a lot of people are buying into the 49ers hype here. They drilled the Bears LW, but they were not exactly an offensive juggernaut and they worked in great field position all day.
They are 0-3-1 ATS their L4 in St. Louis. The Niners are also 1-6-1 ATS their L8 as a dog versus division teams. They are also 1-10 ATS away versus the NFC in their L11.
Meanwhile, the favorite is 14-2 ATS in this series since 1995.
I think there is a lot of line value here with the Niners destrying the Bears LW and the Rams losing by DD.
Pittsburgh (+3')
I see a lot of people on KC, but I gotta go the other way. Pittsburgh has owned the Chiefs (7-1-1 ATS the L9 in the series). THey are also 12-3 ATS L15 as a dog.
The Steelers are 10-2 ATS as a dog off a win and 17-2-2 ATS as a dog off a divisional win.
KC is a profitable HF in September (14-3 ATS), but I think this is a little too much to lay to a power team like Pittsburgh.
Carolina (+9')
The Bucs are only 2-5 ATS as HFs of 8.5 or more. They are also 2-10 ATS as a fav of 4.5 or more vs teams with winning records.
Tampa Bay comes off a huge MNF win and everyone is afraid of the big, bad Bucs. That's what the oddsmakers want us to think.
Carolina has the defense to keep this close and the Bucs still are not that great running the ball.
New England (+4')
System play here. Play on an away dog that is off a shutout loss as an away dog. This system is 11-3 ATS (79%) since 1989.
I think Belichick is better at making adjustments than Andy Reid.
I think the Pats get their running game going against a banged-up Eagles defense that allowed James Mungro from the Colts too run all over them LY for godsakes.
Denver (-3)
The Bolts allowed 197 yards passing in the 1st half to the Chiefs LW. I think that means Jake the Snake has a big day especially with a disasterous game LW.
The Chargers are 0-7 ATS at home after KC when they play a division team. They are also 2-9-2 ATS in their L13 division games.
San Diego is 1-9 ATS at home versus an opponent off an away game and 2-8 ATS as a dog versus an opponent off a win and cover.
May play this Sunday night one later:
Chicago (+9)
Yeah, I know the Bears are horrible, but Minny comes off a big road win.
The Bears are 12-6 ATS the L18 at Minny. They are also 10-4-1 ATS in the first road division game of the year.
The Vikes are 1-6-1 ATS as a Home Fav between 3-10 points against division opp. Plus, they are 0-5 ATS versus opponents off DD losses.
Minnesota is also 7-14-1 ATS as home favs their L22.
Cleveland (+2')
The Brownies have covered 3 of the L4 in B-More. They are 9-2 ATS the L11 as dogs and 7-0 ATS as dogs of 9.5 or less in September.
Cleveland's defense held the Colts to 270 total yards LW. That's bad news for a rookie QB in his second start.
Baltimore's back 7 is solid as usual, but their front four is not that great. I expect the Browns to establish the run pretty early today.
Indianapolis (-1')
I usually would take Tennessee with this small number, but I gotta go with Indy here.
The Colts game is blacked out locally and the team might use that as a motivating factor. Tennessee is coming off a big win last Sunday night over Oakland and the Colts looked sluggish with a 9-6 win in Cleveland.
I think the Colts will play with a chip on their shoulder today b/c of the non-sellout and Indiana's Governor Frank O'Bannon, a big supporter of his local teams, passed away yesterday.
St. Louis (-3)
I think a lot of people are buying into the 49ers hype here. They drilled the Bears LW, but they were not exactly an offensive juggernaut and they worked in great field position all day.
They are 0-3-1 ATS their L4 in St. Louis. The Niners are also 1-6-1 ATS their L8 as a dog versus division teams. They are also 1-10 ATS away versus the NFC in their L11.
Meanwhile, the favorite is 14-2 ATS in this series since 1995.
I think there is a lot of line value here with the Niners destrying the Bears LW and the Rams losing by DD.
Pittsburgh (+3')
I see a lot of people on KC, but I gotta go the other way. Pittsburgh has owned the Chiefs (7-1-1 ATS the L9 in the series). THey are also 12-3 ATS L15 as a dog.
The Steelers are 10-2 ATS as a dog off a win and 17-2-2 ATS as a dog off a divisional win.
KC is a profitable HF in September (14-3 ATS), but I think this is a little too much to lay to a power team like Pittsburgh.
Carolina (+9')
The Bucs are only 2-5 ATS as HFs of 8.5 or more. They are also 2-10 ATS as a fav of 4.5 or more vs teams with winning records.
Tampa Bay comes off a huge MNF win and everyone is afraid of the big, bad Bucs. That's what the oddsmakers want us to think.
Carolina has the defense to keep this close and the Bucs still are not that great running the ball.
New England (+4')
System play here. Play on an away dog that is off a shutout loss as an away dog. This system is 11-3 ATS (79%) since 1989.
I think Belichick is better at making adjustments than Andy Reid.
I think the Pats get their running game going against a banged-up Eagles defense that allowed James Mungro from the Colts too run all over them LY for godsakes.
Denver (-3)
The Bolts allowed 197 yards passing in the 1st half to the Chiefs LW. I think that means Jake the Snake has a big day especially with a disasterous game LW.
The Chargers are 0-7 ATS at home after KC when they play a division team. They are also 2-9-2 ATS in their L13 division games.
San Diego is 1-9 ATS at home versus an opponent off an away game and 2-8 ATS as a dog versus an opponent off a win and cover.
May play this Sunday night one later:
Chicago (+9)
Yeah, I know the Bears are horrible, but Minny comes off a big road win.
The Bears are 12-6 ATS the L18 at Minny. They are also 10-4-1 ATS in the first road division game of the year.
The Vikes are 1-6-1 ATS as a Home Fav between 3-10 points against division opp. Plus, they are 0-5 ATS versus opponents off DD losses.
Minnesota is also 7-14-1 ATS as home favs their L22.
